Tsunami Prediction Algorithms
As with any examination of naturally occurring events, the number of confounding variables associated with any isolated even is almost incomprehensible; however, some sense can be made of Tsunamis as algorithmic events if the right variables are examined.
Currently, mathematical models are mainly used post-tsunami. These models can be utilized to model the events that occurred during a given time period, generally beginning with an earthquake or other seismic event and ending with the dissipation of the tsunami waves. For example, scientists were able to model both the 1755 and 1969 tsunami events that affected the western coasts of
Ideally, however, mathematical models could be used to determine magnitudes and directions of tsunamis, as well as predict which area(s) along a given coast are at the highest risk during a given tsunami. One example of a tsunami risk assessment model was developed for the coast of
The arrival time of the tsunami can be determined for each section of the coast, which allows us to assess the risk for each area based on the time of arrival. In the Japanese case, all the times were approximately twenty minutes, meaning that there exists almost no disparity between risk assessments for each area; however, if the model were applied on a larger scale (for example, on the coast of Peru), the disparities calculated for sections of the coast would allow risk factors to be determined and to allow for communications to those areas to be prioritized.
The “ratio of excess” can be determined by the total number of historical tsunamis and the arrival of tsunami waves over three meters tall at specific locations. We can determine the probability of waves being over five meters tall in each area. As with the arrival time, the disparities calculated based on the ratio of excess can be used to determine which areas are at greater risk .
The determination of risk acquired from the arrival time and the ratio of excess can also be applied to the placement of the sensor system. If we know areas that are at a greater risk level, we can place the sensors closer to said areas so that those areas will be warned about an event more quickly than they otherwise would .
These models can be developed, theoretically, based on data collected by the DART II system or a similar sensor system. In real time, data could be collected by various sensor points and instantaneously be used to estimate arrival time and, combined with a predetermined ratio of excess, to determine which areas should be evacuated or warned.
As aforementioned, the examination of natural events can be a seemingly impossible task, and by no means is it a simple one. I have taken a step towards understanding existing models, allowing for more informed decisions concerning sensor systems for earthquakes and tsunamis to supplement current algorithms and future mathematical tsunami models.
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Hydrodynamic Modeling of Tsunami Contribute to Seismic Risk Assessment?
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Sato, Hiroaki., Murakami, Hitoshi., Kozuki,
Yamamoto, Naoaki. (2003).
Study On Simplified Method of Tsunami Risk Assessment. Natural Hazards, 29,
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Page last updated by cwhit at 11/02/2005 8:41:32 P.M.