Category D: Actions in disputed area
Phase 1 Factors

1D-01  Area of dispute is object of competing claims
1D-02 Legal status of disputed area is ambiguous
1D-03 Previous ruler of the disputed area had fixed the border unsuccessfully
1D-04 "Status quo" side controls disputed area
1D-05 "Non-status quo" side controls disputed area
1D-06 The disputed area is strategically important to "status quo" side
1D-07 The disputed area is strategically important to "non-status quo" side
1D-08 Disputed area economically important to both sides
1D-09 Leaders of one side share same political ideology as leaders in disputed area
1D-10 Head of one side has family ties in disputed area
1D-11 Political party in "non-status quo" side has close ties with parties in disputed area
1D-12 "Status quo" side has weak forces in the disputed area
1D-13 "Status quo" side has substantial forces in the disputed area
1D-14 "Status quo" forces in the disputed area are heavily dependent on outside logistic support
1D-15 Armed force in disputed area unable or unwilling to support government
1D-16 One side fears loss of disputed area means loss of status
1D-17 Population in disputed area poorly integrated
1D-18 Ethnic divisions within the disputed area favor "non-status quo" side
1D-19 Ethnic divisions within the disputed area do not favor "non-status quo" side
1D-20 Immigrants to disputed area from one side increase tension
1D-21 Revolt in disputed area means rejection of union with "status quo" side
1D-22 One side follows a policy of repression against political groups in the disputed area
1D-23 One side encourages rebellious groups in the disputed area
1D-24 One side follows a policy of toleration vis-a-vis political groups in the disputed area
1D-25 Opposition in disputed area has eliminated any potential middle-ground
1D-26 The leader of the disputed area proposes a cooling-off delay
1D-27 Nationalist feelings in the disputed area are stimulated by occupation troops
1D-28 Incidents in the disputed area increase in seriousness and number
1D-29 The proximity of the stronger side to the disputed area gives it great influence
1D-30 "Status quo" side's major allies disfavor its policy toward the disputed area
1D-31 A majority of the area residents register their desire to accede to the other side
1D-32 Good information available to the sides about events in the disputed area
1D-33 Little accurate information available to the sides about events in the disputed area

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Copyright 1999 Lincoln P. Bloomfield and Allen Moulton