Category D: Actions in disputed area
Phase 2 Factors

2D-01  "Status quo" side controls disputed area
2D-02 "Non-status quo" side controls disputed area
2D-03 The economic value to both sides of disputed area increases
2D-04 The economic value to one side of disputed area increases
2D-05 The disputed area does not have important economic value
2D-06 "Status quo" side's strategic interest in disputed area increases
2D-07 "Non-status quo" side's strategic interest in disputed area increases
2D-08 "Status quo" side has military superiority in disputed area
2D-09 "Non-status quo" side has military superiority in disputed area
2D-10 One side increases its capability to deploy military forces in disputed area
2D-11 One side sends troops to disputed area
2D-12 Both sides strengthen military forces in disputed area
2D-13 "Status quo" side reinforces its garrison in disputed area
2D-14 There is a weak countervailing military force near disputed area
2D-15 One or both build border posts in territory claimed by the other
2D-16 One or both sides establish military posts in territory claimed by the other
2D-17 One side to the dispute reinforces its border garrisons
2D-18 Both sides to the dispute reinforce their border garrisons
2D-19 Minor incidents occur along the border between the two sides
2D-20 The major allies of each side agree that disputed area is in the sphere of influence of one of them
2D-21 Allies disagree that disputed area is in one side's sphere of influence
2D-22 Strategic concerns require avoiding events in the disputed area that would disturb great power relationships
2D-23 The rights of minority groups in disputed area are guaranteed
2D-24 The rights of minority groups in disputed area are not guaranteed
2D-25 In disputed area popular sentiment overwhelmingly favors change
2D-26 A majority of the disputed area residents register their desire to accede to the other side
2D-27 One side follows a policy of toleration vis-a-vis political groups in disputed area
2D-28 One side follows a policy of repression against political groups in disputed area
2D-29 One side uses its military presence in disputed area to pursue long-held ideological, political, economic, and strategic goals
2D-30 One side engages in fomenting and encouraging rebellious groups in the area
2D-31 The proximity of one side to disputed area and its greater power give it great influence
2D-32 Ties of one side's leader's to disputed area make action seem urgent
2D-33 One side refuses to intervene in disputed area unless leader in that area accedes to its demands
2D-34 Incidents in disputed area increase in seriousness and number
2D-35 Little accurate information available to the sides about situation in disputed area
2D-36 Accurate information available to the sides about situation in disputed area

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Copyright 1999 Lincoln P. Bloomfield and Allen Moulton