Category D: Actions in disputed area
Phase 3 Factors

3D-01  "Status quo" side lacks anticipated support in disputed area
3D-02 "Non-status quo" side lacks anticipated support in disputed area
3D-03 "Status quo" side misinterprets nature of events in disputed area
3D-04 Supporters of "status quo" side in disputed area begin to turn against it
3D-05 Both sides worry about effects of military activity on hostile ethnic groups in disputed area
3D-06 UN focuses world attention on developments in disputed area
3D-07 Both sides agree to let the UN ascertain the wishes of population in disputed area
3D-08 International organization body is slow in reaching disputed area
3D-09 Moderating third-party forces in disputed area begin to phase out
3D-10 Troops of interested parties present in disputed area form a peacekeeping force
3D-11 One side warns that any offensive action in disputed area will result in wider war
3D-12 Dangers of all-out war increase when hostilities spill out of disputed area
3D-13 Geography of disputed area makes it difficult to prevent one side from reinforcing
3D-14 Practical geographical limits in disputed area make extended operations difficult
3D-15 One side has a sanctuary in terrain difficult for other to reach
3D-16 Geographic isolation of disputed area keeps "non-status quo" side activity at relatively low level
3D-17 Nature/location of "non-status quo" side's attack weakens its claim to be supporting groups in disputed area
3D-18 Each side labels other the aggressor and sees its own actions as defensive
3D-19 Important interests of one side in disputed area threatened by other side's actions
3D-20 There is united opposition to "non-status quo" side's action
3D-21 One side's administration near disputed area is unable to prevent military activity
3D-22 One side claims proof of the other's complicity in military activity in disputed area
3D-23 Raids by one side into disputed area do not cause significant damage or provoke local unrest
3D-24 Forces of one side sufficient to control raiding groups in disputed area

Phase 1   Phase 2   Factor Categories   Cascon Home
Copyright 1999 Lincoln P. Bloomfield and Allen Moulton