Category P: Internal politics of the sides
Phase 2 Factors

2P-01  "Non-status quo" side believes it can win through political means
2P-02 "Status quo" side believes it can win through political means
2P-03 Neither side believes it can win through political means
2P-04 Leaders of one side believe that limited violence will give weight and urgency to diplomatic efforts
2P-05 One side's policy increases in militancy
2P-06 Government policy vis-a-vis the other side encounters political opposition
2P-07 One side shifts from downgrading the dispute to exaggerating it
2P-08 One side hardens position and will negotiate only if its claim is accepted
2P-09 Opposition parties in one side urge firmer policy toward other side
2P-10 Opposition parties in one side want to achieve their ends more rapidly
2P-11 Opposition parties in one side urge use of force to achieve their goals
2P-12 One side believes that prompt action is needed to forestall more extreme action
2P-13 Authorities of one side are divided on whether to deal with the other side unyieldingly or moderately
2P-14 One side fears that yielding to the other side's demands will lead others to make similar demands
2P-15 Humanitarian motives make action seem urgent
2P-16 Domestic political situation of one side heightens public attention to the conflict
2P-17 Public opinion hardens against the other side
2P-18 "Status quo" side agrees to submit the dispute to a plebiscite
2P-19 "Non-status quo" side agrees to submit the dispute to a plebiscite
2P-20 Some clashes involve persons under neither side's control
2P-21 "Non-status quo" side has the experience and capacity to carry on hostilities
2P-22 "Non-status quo" side lacks the experience and capacity to carry on hostilities
2P-23 Individuals with personal stake in status quo are involved in inflammatory incidents
2P-24 "Non-status quo" side develops a strategy which was successful elsewhere
2P-25 "Status quo" side adopts a strategy which was successful elsewhere
2P-26 One side fears if planned action is reversed those involved will proceed without restraint
2P-27 "Status quo" side concerned over world opinion
2P-28 "Non-status quo" side concerned over world opinion
2P-29 Aid to one side portends its use as a base for political action in the region
2P-30 One side wishes to keep its role covert or indirect
2P-31 One side obtains a proxy force to carry out its policy
2P-32 Members of one side are agitated by political developments in other areas of the region
2P-33 "Status quo" side calculates that its action will be successful
2P-34 "Non-status quo" side calculates that its action will be successful
2P-35 For the first time political groups begin to emerge on one side
2P-36 Opposition parties in "status quo" side urge concession to "non-status quo" side's
2P-37 Focus is shifting from external and/or military to internal, civil concerns

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Copyright 1999 Lincoln P. Bloomfield and Allen Moulton