Category P: Internal politics of the sides
Phase 3 Factors

3P-01  "Non-status quo" side's military and territorial objectives appear limited
3P-02 "Non-status quo" side's military and territorial objectives do not appear to be limited
3P-03 Opposition in one side increases as violence escalates
3P-04 Domestic public opinion comes to favor "status quo" side
3P-05 Domestic public opinion comes to favor "non-status quo" side
3P-06 Public opinion in one side rallies against the other side
3P-07 Heavy domestic pressure is generated in one side to cease hostilities
3P-08 Public opinion in "status quo" side favors a negotiated settlement
3P-09 Internal unrest likely to be triggered by continued hostilities
3P-10 Internal unrest unlikely to be triggered by continued hostilities
3P-11 "Status quo" side counters violence by arrests and strong reprisals
3P-12 "Non-status quo" side wins political concessions
3P-13 At times extremist political groups in both sides gain control over policy
3P-14 "Non-status quo" side denies any connection with the hostilities
3P-15 "Non-status quo" side creates a rival government
3P-16 One side dramatizes its position by an international incident
3P-17 One side feels responsible for the fate of its proxy forces
3P-18 Some military officers on one side believe a military solution is possible
3P-19 Opposition within "status quo" side reaches high into the military
3P-20 One side's prime role in the military action is widely assumed despite attempts to keep it covert
3P-21 Splits occur in the leadership of one side
3P-22 Splits within one side become open rifts
3P-23 Unity of one side is reinforced as members take action against suspected traitors
3P-24 A coalition is emerging within one side in opposition to party in power
3P-25 One side is ideologically committed to prolonging the fight
3P-26 Ideological split exists among "non-status quo" side's supporters
3P-27 Ideological split exists among "status quo" side's supporters
3P-28 One side seeks to isolate the other side from its base of support
3P-29 Prolongation of hostilities erodes resources of one side
3P-30 One side is over-confident in seeking military solution
3P-31 "Non-status quo" side resorts to guerrilla war
3P-32 Initial objective of one side conceived as being limited and for humanitarian reasons
3P-33 "Non-status quo" side's hope for political gains is not fulfilled
3P-34 "Non-status quo" side not prepared to act independently

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Copyright 1999 Lincoln P. Bloomfield and Allen Moulton