7. Future

The review clearly shows that the e-commerce is in the state of flux. It resembles more like a high stake gamble than a rational exploration of new business venue. New ways and ideas emerge and die daily. Losers so far certainly far outnumber winners. The money, however, continues to flow in. Nobody wants to miss the opportunity of funding the next Jerry Yang and Bill Gates. The "Wintel" version of the e-commerce is far from the sight. Statistics, information and data are all over the board. They are as good as anyone's guesstimation. The only sure thing is that it won't prevent people from trying and betting.

Now, let's pause to ponder some what-ifs. Would the speed of accessing the net change anything? Would the improvement of search technologies favor any models we have described so far? Would the computing modes (NC v. smart PC) define the play-ground? Would any regulations change the name of the game? What about people's discomfort with security and personal information? Is the eventual ease of the net shopping going to make everything commodity as fast as the logic suggests? Is the interface technology (e.g., voice command, & visual sensing) going to change the way people approach shopping? The list of questions goes on.

Instead of speculating the questions individually, let's contemplate some broad human behavioral patterns for a moment. While some regards the piercing through of complex web sites a challenge, most people favor user friendly systems. The key driver for the growth of e-commerce will be the ease of use. Part of the reason for the looming importance of brands on line is the ease of decision and access. People don't have to overcome mountains of barriers to arrive at where they want to be. And once they are there, the quality and cost of the goods and services are predictable.

People have diverse needs. They are going to shop for different reasons and in different ways. Economics, convenience, personal style, quality and status are all going to be reasons that drive people to different ways of shopping. Technology development is going to liberate the potential to satisfy these needs instead of imposing singular modes. The convergence in pricing, goods and services offers are unlikely to happen. The improvement in human and net interface technologies, e.g., access, search and ease of use, will undoubtedly increase the online shopping population. All models will probably survive.

People are bored easily. Getting people's attention is one thing, and keeping them attentive is a different matter. Internet offers by far the most democratized media to people. Membership offering, subscription based shopping and banner advertisement are going to be integral part of the net commerce. They serve to get people anchored in the information jungle.

Humans are also natural xenophobic. Every new invention has met with initial suspicion. The concerns for security and confidentiality are probably the expressions of the underlying discomfort. As their net experiences grow, their fear and anxiety will reduce. Technology will help. It gives them a tangible reason to trust. Experiments conducted by ZAXOR Software have shown that "online consumer purchasing is a multi-sensory prospect", and that "when multiple sensory input,(as in the form of a multi-user VRML world) familiarized the (consumer to the ) environment", many of the concerns that now plague the consumers and prevent them from purchasing online dissolve. We all know that no technology actually eliminate risks, however sophisticated it may be.

The future is uncertain and despite the ever-increasing number of individuals on the network it is not clear which business models will succeed on the web. The web as we know it is only five years old. It may be another five years before we know how people will use the network and how businesses can really make money through this channel.