Selected Publications (in PDF format):
Paltsev, S., 2016, "The Complicated Geopolitics of Renewable Energy," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 72(6), 390-395.
Zhang, D. and S. Paltsev, 2016, "The Future of Natural Gas in China: Effects of Pricing Reform and Climate Policy," Climate Change Economics, 7 (4), 1650012, 1-32.
"Scenarios of Global Change: Integrated Assessment of Climate
Impacts," MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global
Change, 2016, Report 291, Cambridge, MA (with A. Sokolov, H. Chen, X.
Gao, A. Schlosser, E. Monier, C. Fant, J. Scott, Q. Ejaz, E. Couzo,
R. Prinn, and M. Haigh).
Kleinberg, R., S. Paltsev, C. Ebinger, D. Hobbs, and T. Boersma, 2016,
"Tight Oil Development Economics: Benchmarks, Breakeven Points, and
Inelasticities", MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
Research, Working Paper 2016-012, Cambridge, MA.
Paltsev, S., 2016, "Energy Scenarios: The Value and Limits of Scenario Analysis", MIT
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Working Paper
2016-007, Cambridge, MA.
"The Influence of Gas-to-Liquids and Natural Gas Production Technology
Penetration on the Crude Oil-Natural Gas Price Relationship,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2015, Report
288, Cambridge, MA (with D. Ramberg, H. Chen, and J. Parsons).
"Natural gas pricing reform in China: Getting closer to a market system?"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2015, Report
282, Cambridge, MA (with D. Zhang).
"Impacts of CO2 Mandates for New Cars in the European Union,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2015, Report
281, Cambridge, MA (with H. Chen, V. Karplus, P. Kishimoto, and J. Reilly).
"The MIT EPPA6 Model: Economic Growth, Energy Use, and Food
Consumption," MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global
Change, 2015, Report 278, Cambridge, MA (with H. Chen, J. Reilly, J. Morris, and M. Babiker).
"International Trade in Natural Gas: Golden Age of LNG?"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2014,
Report 271, Cambridge, MA (with Y. Du).
"The Future of Global Water Stress: An Integrated Assessment,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2014,
Report 254, Cambridge, MA (with A. Schlosser, K Strzepek, X. Gao, A. Gueneau, C. Fant, B. Rasheed, T. Smith-Greico, E. Blanc, H. Jacoby, and J. Reilly).
"Natural Gas Monetization Pathways for Cyprus: Interim Report -
Economics of Project Development Options," 2013, MIT Energy Initiative,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (with F. O'Sullivan, N. Lee, A. Agarwal, M. Li, X. Li, N. Fylaktos).
"Regulatory Control of Vehicle and Power Plant Emissions: How Effective and at What Cost?"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2013,
Report 251, Cambridge, MA (with V. Karplus, Y.-H.H. Chen, I. Karkatsouli, J. Reilly, and H. Jacoby).
"Shale Gas in China: Can We Expect a "Revolution"?" Proceedings of
the GTAP Conference on Global Economic Analysis, 2013, Global Trade
Analysis Project, West Lafayette, IN (with F. O'Sullivan, and Q. Ejaz).
"What GHG Concentration Targets are Reachable in this Century?"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2013,
Report 247, Cambridge, MA (with J. Reilly and A. Sokolov).
"Integrated Economic and Climate Projections for Impact Assessment,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2013,
Report 243, Cambridge, MA (with E. Monier, J. Scott, A. Sokolov, and J. Reilly).
"Shale Gas Production: Potential versus Actual GHG Emissions,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2012,
Report 234, Cambridge, MA (with F. O'Sullivan).
"The Role of China in Mitigating Climate Change,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2012,
Report 215, Cambridge, MA (with J. Morris, Y. Cai, V. Karplus and H. Jacoby).
"Potential Direct and Indirect Effects of Global Cellulosic Biofuel Production on Greenhouse Gas Fluxes from Future Land-use Change,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2012,
Report 210, Cambridge, MA (with Kicklighter, D., A. Gurgel, J. Mellilo, J. Reilly).
"Emissions Pricing to Stabilize Global Climate," Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Nota di Lavoro 80.2011, Milan,
Italy (with V. Bosetti, J. Reilly, and C. Carraro).
"The Influence of Shale Gas on U.S. Energy and Environmental Policy," European University Institute,
Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, EUI Working Paper RSCAS 2011/52, Italy
(with H. Jacoby and F. O'Sullivan).
"Russia’s Natural Gas Export Potential up to 2050,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011,
Report 201, Cambridge, MA.
"The Impact of Climate Policy on U.S. Aviation,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011,
Report 198, Cambridge, MA (with N. Winchester, C. Wollersheim, R. Clewlow, N. Jost, J. Reilly, and I.A. Waitz).
"The Future of Natural Gas, An Interdisciplinary MIT Study," Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, 2011 (with E. Moniz et al.).
"The Prospects for Coal-To-Liquid Conversion: A General Equilibrium Analysis,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011,
Report 197, Cambridge, MA (with Chen, Y.-H. Henry, and J. Reilly).
(also appears in Energy Policy, 2011, 39(9), p. 4713-4725).
"Health Damages from Air Pollution in China,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011,
Report 196, Cambridge, MA (with K. Matus, K.-M. Nam, N. Selin, L. Lamsal, and J. Reilly).
"What to Expect from Sectoral Trading: a U.S.-China Example,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2011,
Report 193, Cambridge, MA (with C. Gavard, N. Winchester, and H. Jacoby).
(also appears in Climate Change Economics, 2011, 2(1), p. 9-26).
"Combining a Renewable Portfolio Standard with a Cap-and-Trade Policy:
A General Equilibrium Analysis,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2010,
Report 187, Cambridge, MA (with J. Morris and J. Reilly).
"The Future of U.S. Natural Gas Production, Use, and Trade,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2010,
Report 186, Cambridge, MA (with H. Jacoby, J. Reilly, Q.J. Ejaz, F. O'Sullivan, J.
Morris, S. Rausch, N. Winchester, and O. Kragha).
(also appears in Energy Policy, 2011, 39(9), p. 5309-5321).
"Distributional Implications of Alternative U.S. Greenhouse Gas Control Measures,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2010,
Report 185, Cambridge, MA (with S. Rausch, G. Metcalf, and J. Reilly).
(also appears in B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 2010, 10(2), Article 1, p. 1-44).
"Will Border Carbon Adjustments Work?"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2010,
Report 184, Cambridge, MA (with N. Winchester, and J. Reilly).
(also appears in B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 2011, 11(1), Article 7, p. 1-27).
"Canada’s Bitumen Industry Under CO2 Constraints,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2010,
Report 183, Cambridge, MA (with G. Chan, J. Reilly, and Y.-H. Chen).
"Greenhouse Gas Markets, Carbon Dioxide Credits, and Biofuels," in The Biofuels Market: Current
Situation and Alternative Scenarios, 2009, S. Zarrilli (ed.), United
Nations: Geneva and New York, p. 15-27 (with J. Reilly and A. Gurgel).
"Commercial Viability of Second Generation Biofuel Technology," in The Biofuels Market:
Current Situation and Alternative Scenarios, 2009, S. Zarrilli (ed.), United
Nations: Geneva and New York, p. 29-50 (with J. Reilly and A. Gurgel).
"Distributional Impacts of a U.S. Greenhouse Gas Policy: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Carbon Pricing,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009,
Report 182, Cambridge, MA (with S. Rausch, G. Metcalf, and J. Reilly).
"Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009,
Report 180, Cambridge, MA (with M. Webster, A. Sokolov, J. Reilly, C. Forest, A.
Schlosser, C. Wang, D. Kicklighter, M. Sarofim, J. Melillo, R. Prinn
and H. Jacoby).
"Measuring Welfare Loss Caused by Air Pollution in Europe: A CGE Analysis,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009,
Report 178, Cambridge, MA (with K.M. Nam, N. Selin, and J. Reilly).
(also appears in
Energy Policy, 2010, 38(9), p. 5059-5071).
"Global Health and Economic Impacts of Future Ozone Pollution,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009,
Report 177, Cambridge, MA (with N. Selin, S. Wu, K.M. Nam, J. Reilly, R. Prinn, and M. Webster).
(also appears in
Environmental Research Letters, 2009, 4(044014), p. 1-9).
"Biofuels, Climate Policy and the European Vehicle Fleet,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009,
Report 176, Cambridge, MA (with X. Gitiaux, J. Reilly, and S. Rausch).
"The Cost of Climate Policy in the United States,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009,
Report 173, Cambridge, MA (with J. Reilly, H. Jacoby, and J. Morris).
(also appears in
Energy Economics, 2009, 31(S2), p. S235-S243).
"Prospects for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in the United States and Japan: A General Equilibrium Analysis,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009,
Report 172, Cambridge, MA (with V. Karplus and J. Reilly).
(also appears in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2010, 44(8), p. 620-641).
"Russia and the World Energy Markets: Long-Term Scenarios,"
Proceeding of the GTAP Conference on Global Economic Analysis: Trade Integration and Sustainable Development -
Looking for an Inclusive World, 2009, GTAP and United Nations
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean; Santiago, Chile (with J. Reilly and N. Tourdyeva).
"Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties
in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009,
Report 169, Cambridge, MA (with A. Sokolov, P. Stone, C. Forest, R. Prinn, M. Sarofim, M.
Webster, A. Schlosser, D. Kicklighter, S. Dutkiewicz, J.
Reilly, C. Wang, B. Felzer, J. Melillo, and H. Jacoby).
(also appears in
Journal of Climate, 2009, 22(19), p. 5175-5204).
"Unintended Environmental Consequences of a Global Biofuels Program,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009,
Report 168, Cambridge, MA (with J. Melillo, A. Gurgel, D. Kicklighter, J. Reilly, T.
Cronin, B. Felzer, S. Paltsev, A. Schlosser, A. Sokolov and X. Wang).
"Sharing the Burden of GHG Reductions,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008,
Report 167, Cambridge, MA (with H. Jacoby, M. Babiker, and J. Reilly).
Also available as:
"Sharing the Burden of GHG Reductions," Discussion Paper
08-09, Cambridge, MA: Harvard Project on International Climate
Agreements, October 2008 (with H. Jacoby, M. Babiker, and J.
Reilly).
"Uncertainty in Greenhouse Emissions and Costs of Atmospheric Stabilization,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008,
Report 165, Cambridge, MA (with M. Webster, J. Parsons, J. Reilly, and H. Jacoby).
"Marginal Abatement Costs and Marginal Welfare Costs for Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Reductions: Results from the EPPA Model,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008,
Report 164, Cambridge, MA (with J. Morris and J. Reilly).
"The Influence on Climate Change of Differing Scenarios for Future
Development Analyzed Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008,
Report 163, Cambridge, MA (with R. Prinn, A. Sokolov, M. Sarofim, J. Reilly, and H. Jacoby).
(also appears in Climatic Change, 2011, 104(3-4), p. 515-537).
"A Forward Looking Version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model," MIT Joint Program
on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008,
Report 161, Cambridge, MA (with M. Babiker, A. Gurgel, and J. Reilly).
(also appears in
Economic Modelling, 2009, 26(6), p. 1341-1354).
"Analysis of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Tax Proposals," MIT Joint Program
on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008,
Report 160, Cambridge, MA (with G. Metcalf, J. Reilly, H. Jacoby, and J. Holak).
"Analysis of the Coal Sector Under Carbon Constraints," MIT Joint Program
on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008,
Report 158, Cambridge, MA (with J. McFarland and H. Jacoby).
(also appears in
Journal of Policy Modeling, 2009, 31(3), p. 404-424).
"Potential Land Use Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry," MIT Joint Program on
the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008,
Report 155, Cambridge, MA (with A. Gurgel and J. Reilly).
(also appears in
Journal of Agricultural and Food Industrial Organization, 2007, 5(2), Article 9, p. 1-34).
"Modeling the Prospects for Hydrogen Powered Transportation Through 2100," MIT Joint Program
on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2008,
Report 154, Cambridge, MA (with R. Sandoval, V. Karplus, and J. Reilly).
(also appears in
Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 2009, 43(3), p. 291-316).
"Energy Scenarios for East Asia: 2005-2025," MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2007,
Report 152, Cambridge, MA (with J. Reilly).
(also appears in From Growth to Convergence: Asia's Next Two Decades, F. Zhai (ed.), Palgrave Macmillan, 2009, p. 211-239).
"U.S. Greenhouse Gas Cap-and-Trade Proposals: Application of a Forward-Looking Computable General Equilibrium
Model," MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2007,
Report 150, Cambridge, MA (with A. Gurgel, J. Reilly, and G. Metcalf).
(also appears in Environment and Development Economics, 2011, 16(2), p. 155-176).
"Global Economic Effects of Changes in Crops, Pasture, and Forests due to Changing Climate, Carbon Dioxide, and Ozone,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2007,
Report 149, Cambridge, MA (with J. Reilly, B. Felzer, X. Wang, D. Kicklighter, J. Melillo, R. Prinn,
M. Sarofim, A. Sokolov, and C. Wang).
(also appears in Energy Policy, 2007, 35(11), p. 5370-5383).
"Assessment of U.S. Cap-and-Trade Proposals," MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2007,
Report 146, Cambridge, MA (with J. Reilly, H. Jacoby, A. Gurgel, G. Metcalf, A. Sokolov, and J. Holak).
(a short version also appears in Climate Policy, 2008, 8(4), p. 395-420).
"Biomass Energy and Competition for Land," MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2007,
Report 145, Cambridge, MA (with J. Reilly).
(also appears in Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy, T. Hertel, S. Rose, R. Tol (eds.), Routledge, 2009, p. 184-207).
"Heavier Crude, Changing Demand for Petroleum Fuels, Regional Climate
Policy, and the Location of Upgrading Capacity: A Preliminary Look,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2007,
Report 144, Cambridge, MA (with J. Reilly and F. Choumert).
"The Value of Emissions Trading,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2006,
Report 132, Cambridge, MA (with M. Webster and J. Reilly).
(also appears in Energy Policy, 2010, 38(4), p. 1787-1796).
"Improving the Refining Sector in EPPA," MIT Joint
Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2006, Technical Note 9,
Cambridge, MA (with J. Reilly and F. Choumert).
"Historical Anthropogenic Emissions Inventories for Greenhouse Gases and Major Criteria Pollutants," MIT Joint
Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2006, Technical Note 8,
Cambridge, MA (with M. Asadoorian, M. Sarofim, J. Reilly, and C. Forest).
"Incorporating Climate Change Feedbacks into a General Economic Equilibrium Model,"
Proceeding of the GTAP Conference on Global Economic Analysis, 2006, GTAP and United Nations
Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (with J. Reilly).
"An Analysis of the European Emission Trading Scheme,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2005,
Report 127, Cambridge, MA (with J. Reilly).
(also appears in Economic Modeling of Climate Change and Energy Policies,
M. De Miguel, X. Labandeira, B. Manzano (eds.), 2006, Edward Elgar Publishing, p. 45-64).
"The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model: Version 4,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2005,
Report 125, Cambridge, MA (with J. Reilly, H. Jacoby, R. Eckaus, J. McFarland, M. Sarofim,
M. Asadoorian, and M. Babiker).
"The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2005,
Report 124, Cambridge, MA (with A. Sokolov, A. Schlosser, S. Dutkiewicz, D. Kicklighter, H. Jacoby,
R. Prinn, C. Forest, J. Reilly, C. Wang,
B. Felzer, M. Sarofim, J. Scott, P. Stone, J. Melillo, and J. Cohen).
"Climate Change Taxes and Energy Efficiency in Japan,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2005,
Report 121, Cambridge, MA (with S. Kasahara, J. Reilly, H. Jacoby, and A.D. Ellerman).
(also appears in Environmental and Resource Economics, 2007, 37(2), p. 377-410).
"Modeling the Transport Sector: The Role of Existing Fuel Taxes in Climate Policy,"
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2004,
Report 117, Cambridge, MA (with H.Jacoby, J. Reilly, L. Viguier, and M. Babiker).
(also appears in Energy and Environment, R. Loulou, J.-P. Waaub, G. Zaccour (eds.), 2005, Springer, p. 211-238).
"Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in the Former USSR: Social Transfers in
the Kyrgyz Republic," World Development, 2004, 32(11), pp. 1849-1870 (with C.M.Becker).
"The Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in Climate Policy: Analysis Using
the MIT IGSM," MIT Joint
Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2004, Report 114,
Cambridge, MA (with J. Reilly, M. Sarofim, and R. Prinn).
(also appears in Energy Journal, 2006, Special Issue on Multigas Mitigation and Climate Policy, p. 503-520).
"Economic Benefits of Air Pollution Regulation in the USA: An Integrated Approach," MIT Joint
Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2004, Report 113,
Cambridge, MA (with T. Yang, K. Matus, and J. Reilly).
(also appears in The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics, A.Haurie and L.Viguier (eds.),
2005, Springer, p. 267-294;
an expanded version appears in Climatic Change, 2008, 88(1), p. 59-92).
"The Cost of Kyoto Protocol Targets: The Case of Japan," MIT Joint Program
on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2004, Report 112, Cambridge, MA (with
J. Reilly, H. Jacoby, and K.H. Tay).
(a version of the paper is also appears as "How (and Why) Do Climate Policy Costs Differ Among Countries?"
in Human-Induced Climate Change: An Interdisciplinary Assessment, M.
Schlesinger et al (eds.), 2007, Cambridge University Press, p. 282-293).
"Technology and Technical Change in the MIT EPPA Model," MIT Joint Program on the
Science and Policy of Global Change, 2004, Report 111, Cambridge, MA (with H. Jacoby,
J. Reilly, and J. McFarland).
(also appears in Energy Economics, 2006, 28(5-6), p. 610-631).
"Disaggregating Household Transport in the MIT-EPPA Model," MIT Joint
Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2004, Technical Note 5,
Cambridge, MA (with L. Viguier, M. Babiker, J. Reilly, and K.H. Tay).
"Moving from Static to Dynamic General Equilibrium Economic Models (Notes
for a beginner in MPSGE)," MIT Joint Program on the Science and
Policy of Global Change, 2004, Technical Note 4, Cambridge, MA.
"Russia's Role in the Kyoto Protocol," MIT Joint Program on the Science and
Policy of Global Change, 2003, Report 98, Cambridge, MA (with A.
Bernard, J. Reilly, M. Vielle, and L. Viguier).
"Emissions Trading to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the
United States: The McCain-Lieberman Proposal," MIT Joint Program on
the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2003, Report 97, Cambridge, MA
(with J. Reilly, H. Jacoby, A.D. Ellerman, and K.H. Tay).
"The Kyoto Protocol: Regional and Sectoral Contributions to the
Carbon Leakage," The Energy Journal, 2001, 22(4), pp. 53-79.
(also appears as
"The Kyoto Agreement: Regional and Sectoral Contributions to the
Carbon Leakage," Discussion Papers in Economics, University of Colorado,
2000, Working Paper 00-5.)
"Macro-Experimental Economics in the Kyrgyz Republic: Social
Security Sustainability and Pension Reform," Comparative Economic
Studies, 2001, 43(3), pp 1-34 (with C.M. Becker).
"The Kyoto Protocol: "Hot Air" for Russia?" Discussion Papers
in Economics, University of Colorado,
2000, Working Paper 00-9.
"GTAP-Energy in GAMS: The Dataset and Static Model," Discussion
Papers in Economics, University of Colorado,
2000, Working Paper 00-2 (with T. Rutherford).
"Distortion of photon correlation function in detection systems
with paralyzable dead time effects," Journal of the Optical Society
of America B, 1995, 12(9), pp. 1550-1554 (with V. Apanasovich).
"Modeling and comparative analysis of correlators of random flows of
signals," Electronnoe Modelirovanie, 16(1), 1994, p. 84-87 (with V.
Apanasovich, in Russian).
CGE Pedagogic Papers
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