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Modeling historical changes in pediatric cancer mortality rates.
Mortality rates for some of the most common pediatric cancers including leukemias, lymphomas, and central nervous system cancers increased in the first half of the 20th century and declined in the second half of the century, to present day. While this decline may be attributed to the introduction of effective pediatric chemotherapies, especially in the 1960s, we at the Thilly Lab identified a previously unreported decline in the presently less common pediatric cancers, including lower gastrointestinal cancer. We have modeled these mortality rates using the two-hit hypothesis model of carcinogenesis, amended to account for the discovery and hypothesis that the cells at risk for generating cancers are mutator/hypermutable metakaryotic stem cells. The data for these resuls can be found here , along with a MATLAB application allowing for at-home analysis of the dataset with the amended two-hit model.