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President Lucio According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (www.eiu.com) Guitierrez is not in a strong position of power. The current Ecuadorian Congress is overpowering his ability to govern. His reliance on the support for costal based parties may impede our attempts to deal directly with his government without resorting to strong political pressure. It poses the following problems:
~Can we count on Guitierrez for strong political support?
-here are some problems:
#1 although his government is very pro-U.S., we cannot assume his position of power is strong. Also a huge major opponent is the Conaie (Confederacion de Nacionalidades Indigenas del Ecuador or the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador [I translated that myself to the best of my knowledge, but you get the point]) We may end up weakening Guitierrez's own image if he willingly gives up the Galapagos (which is most likely viewed as a national treasure for both esthetical and economical purposes). If he yields the Galapagos to any foreign organization, it will look bad. We are not enemies with his government, so we really don't want to create an atmosphere where we could either anger President Guitierrez or run the potential problem of ousting him so he does not complete his term until 2007. Furthermore, if his party becomes very unpopular we run the troubles of an election that elects a president that may despise foreign (particualarly U.S.) powers, and thus refuses to cooperate well with them.
#2 if we avoid his government directly, it would deny them not only legitimacy, but, to be frank, it would look bad. Not only would it weaken his own administration, which is Pro-U.S., but also, that would require us to talk then to his opposistion party Congress, who is unlikely to support this idea to begin with.
EIU predicts that "because of the weakness of the institutional framework, serious fractures in the cabinet, concerted oppoisition pressure against the president or large-scale popular protests could precipipitate a government collapse" (Ecuador 1).
One realm of possibility that we could entertain in mounting political pressure to push the Ecuadorian government in general, (although this may be perceived as underhanded by some in the international and Ecuadorian community would be to impede the process of the completetion of the free trade agreement, which Ecuador is eager to finish. This is timely, because the talks should be finished by finished by 2005 (Ecuador 1).The only reason why this could be used as political pressure is that the agreement will help Ecuador secure a firm grip on international exports other than oil. Although their economy seems strong at the moment, it is because a bulk of the GNP comes from the sale of oil. Due to a lack of diveristy in their economy, they are in a precarious situation. They have already given up on their currency and have adopted U.S. dollars as their official currency. However, this action will put a considerable amount of pressure on Guitierrez, which would be unfair for the U.S. to do considering he is in accord with many of our interests. Also a deadlocked delay would injure U.S. relations in the area since the treaty also effects Peru and Columbia. This treaty may also affect drug polciy, something that our internal organizations, like the DEA, and other special interest groups will become angry about. Unless we can pursuade such groups and the governments of PEru and Colombia to agree, this action would be difficult. Also it would set a bad precedence, assuming one has not already been set, since this process will use such mutually beneficial bills as leverage in diplomatic relations in South America. Also this would again impede if not slow the improving economic conditions in Ecuador. In other words, this is a very serious threat that could end up creating enemies on both sides due to the weakness ins Guitierrez's government.
Furthermore, EIU reported that "we expect his [Guitierrez's] adminstration to become increasingly ineffective, as the legislative agenda is co-opted by the powerful coastalbased parties" (Ecuador 1)
A more positive and image building approach the U.S. might take is helping Ecuador with their debt by canceling some of it and expediting the process of finishing the FTA. Furthermore the U.S. could grant the Ecuadorian government a loan in order to further jump start the weaker sections of their economy.
Also the U.S. government needs the FTA to be ratified by the governments prior to 2007 because the current US-Andean Trade Promotion and Drug-Eradication (ATPDEA) will terminate in 2006.
Finally in a recent interview conducted by one of my fellow students, Sebastian Castro, an aide of the Ecuadorian minister replied to a question about Ecuador's feelings toward an international organization running the Galapagos with the equivalent phrasing of we can govern the Galapagos by ourselves. Don't quote me on that. I'll try to find his quote.
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