Had our
class been assigned this problem immediately after
hurricanes Katrina and Rita, we could have based our plans solely on
the
conditions of last year. However, we cannot neglect the amount of
rebuilding
that has occurred and the number of people who have returned since
then. The
current population of Orleans Parish, as of October 2006, is
approximately
190,000 – 43% of the 2004 population of 440,000. Even though less than
half of
the former residents have returned to the parish, the significant
number of
people who have come back requires us to take the current residents
into
account, rather than simply planning our “ideal” city from the ground
up. In
addition, the Army Corps of Engineers has already spent roughly $350
million repairing
hurricane protection systems, and it would be simply wasteful to ignore
this
spent money.
On the
other hand, if our goal is to design a New Orleans that will be
safe and sustainable for the next century, rather than just the next
decade, we
cannot entirely alter our vision for the city based on the changes of
the past
year. The areas of most concern are those along Lake
Pontchartrain – Lakeview, Gentilly, New Orleans East,
Village de
L’Est, and Venetian Isles – because, as discussed in the Background
section,
subsidence, sea level rise, and increasing storm surge, among other
factors,
put these areas at the greatest risk. Therefore, our 100-year goal of
“slimming
down” New Orleans
still applies: ultimately, we want to see all residents move out of
these
districts. We are then left with two main questions: how exactly do we
move
residents out of these areas, and over what time period does this need
to
happen?
Originally,
we tried to answer these questions by looking at a wide range of
factors, both
environmental (rate of subsidence over time, sea level rise, etc.) and
social/economic (number of people who have returned, amount of
rebuilding that
has occurred, historical significance, overall economic benefits and
losses);
in the end, though, it came down to the issues of safety and
practicality – we
do not want residents living in areas that we don’t consider safe,
should
another hurricane of Katrina’s magnitude hit, and we do not want to
spend
excessive amounts of money protecting areas that we eventually want to
see void
of residents. For each district we asked: how safe is this area right
now? How
long can we ensure the safety of this area, and at what cost? Because
those
questions yield different answers for different districts, our plans
for those five
areas are not exactly the same in the short term, though they still all
lead to
the same long-term goal.
Lakeview
and Gentilly
The Lakeview and Gentilly districts have
similar risk
factors. Elevation in Lakeview District ranges from .5 meters above sea
level
to 3 meters below sea level; elevation in Gentilly ranges from .5
meters above
sea level to 2 meters below. Lakeview is subsiding at a rate of 7
millimeters
per year; Gentilly, 6 millimeters per year. Each has a total population
that is
18% of its pre-Katrina population. Most importantly, the damage in both
of
these districts was caused by problems with the canals, rather than the
levees
along Lake Pontchartrain. The flood
gates
necessary to fix these problems have already been put in place (see
levee
short-term solutions); therefore, Lakeview and Gentilly should be safe,
at
least in the short term, from damage of the kind they received with
hurricanes
Katrina and Rita, should another, similar hurricane hit. So far, a
total of
$170 million has been spent fixing hurricane protection systems for
these two
districts. The Army Corps of Engineers plans on spending an additional
$120
million in this area, but most of these projects will help protect not
only the
people in Gentilly and Lakeview, but also the rest of the city. Because
the
money for protection in these areas either has already been spent or
needs to
be spent for the more general protection of the city, they are
protected at no
extra cost. This led us to the solution of a more gradual approach for
these
areas, and we have created a zoning plan that works in stages to move
people
out of these areas over the next 50 years.
Lakeview
and Gentilly will be zoned
according to the
following regulations:
- Effective
immediately:
No
current or future
residents may begin the construction of new houses. They may, however,
purchase
or add onto an existing house. Neighborhoods with occupancy lower
than 5%
of the August (pre-Katrina) 2005 population may not remain - they will
be
entirely evacuated and cleared.
- 5
years: In 5
years, no
household
additions or major renovations will be allowed for existing houses.
- 10
years: In 10 years,
no new
residents will be
allowed to move into the districts and all existing uninhabited
houses
will be abandoned and cleared.
- 30 years: Neighborhoods
with
occupancy lower
than 10% will be entirely evacuated and cleared.
- 35 years: Neighborhoods
with
occupancy lower
than 15% will be entirely evacuated and cleared.
- 40
years: Neighborhoods
with
occupancy lower
than 20% will be entirely evacuated and cleared.
- 45 years: Neighborhoods
with
occupancy lower
than 25% will be entirely evacuated and cleared.
- 50
years: All remaining
neighborhoods will be
entirely evacuated and cleared.
While we understand that any plan to move
people out of an entire
district will sound harsh, the goal is the safety of the people and the
overall
sustainability of New Orleans
in the long term. We believe that the 50 year zoning plan is the least
harsh of
many methods Over 50 years, most families are likely to experience some
sort of
life-altering event – such as marriage, death, birth of children,
children
moving away, divorce, or change of job – that might spur a move. When
this
happens, the idea is for them to move out of these districts at that
time. We
would encourage people moving to a safer area in New Orleans, in particular areas
south of the
I-10 highway. If individuals feel, however, that they would be better
off in
some part of Louisiana
or even elsewhere in the country, they will be provided with assistance
in all
aspects of relocation – finding a home, job, school system, and
anything else
they might need.
New
Orleans East, Village de L’Est,
and
Venetian Isles
New Orleans East and Village de L’Est had
the most severe
damage of any New Orleans
district: 86% and 85%, respectively, of the homes in these districts
experienced more than $5,200 of damage. Venetian Isles has a higher
subsidence
rate, 8 millimeters per year, than anywhere else in Orleans parish. The damage these
areas
experienced was mostly due to the breaching of levees. At this point,
the Army
Corps of Engineers has rebuilt the levees to the level they were at
before the
storms in 2005. So far, $67.5 million has been spent on rebuilding the
levees
to protect these three districts, but $232.5 million worth of planned
projects
have not been started. Since the levees are currently no stronger than
they
were in 2005, it is likely that should another storm like Katrina hit,
the
levees would not fare much better than they did a year ago; since we
are
planning having people move out of this area eventually, it does not
seem
practical to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on protection.
Therefore, in
order to guard against potentially extensive loss, both in property and
human
life, people will not be allowed to live in these three districts at
all.
Effective immediately, we plan to have
the
government
acquire the land
of New Orleans East,
Village de L’Est, and Venetian Isles through standard eminent domain
procedures. Current residents will receive “full and just” compensation
for
their property: their homes will be bought at pre-hurricane values, and
they
will receive any additional compensation necessary, such as the costs
of
moving. Former residents who have not moved back will also be
compensated for
the full, pre-storm value of their homes. Residents of these three
districts
will, like the residents of Lakeview and Gentilly, receive free
services to
help them find a new home, within or outside of New Orleans.
Lower
Ninth Ward
The Lower Ninth Ward experienced a great
deal of damage –
82% of the homes had more than $5,200 of damage. However, its
subsidence rate,
5 millimeters per year, is slightly less than those of many of the
areas along
Lake Pontchartrain, and its average elevation, .9 meters above sea
level, is
much higher than many areas of New Orleans, even higher than the
average
elevation of New Orleans as a whole, that is exactly sea level. Lower Ninth Ward
District
is divided into two neighborhoods, Holy Cross Neighborhood and Lower
Ninth Ward
Neighborhood. Holy Cross, which has a higher elevation and is a
national
historical district, experienced far less damage than Lower Ninth Ward
Neighborhood, and has rebuilt fairly quickly. Lower Ninth Ward
Neighborhood,
however, currently has a population of only about 5% of its pre-storm
total,
and is even still covered by vast amounts of debris.
Given the exceedingly small number of
people
returned, we
plan on redeveloping the Lower Ninth Ward Neighborhood as an area that
will
provide an alternative location for displaced people from other
districts to
live. The entire Lower Ninth Ward district is included in our century
vision
for the city due to the fact it is in one of the better locations –
that is,
more likely to be safe from long-term ecological problems such as sea
level
rise and subsidence, as it is along the river (see background of
problem). One
concern with the remaining areas of New Orleans, though, was that the
decreased overall area
would cause the value of the remaining land to rise dramatically,
making it
difficult or impossible for lower-income people to stay in the city. We
would
like it to be possible for all the residents who have returned to the
five
districts along the lake (above) to live elsewhere in New Orleans,
should they choose to do so.
Higher-income residents should have little problem finding a home, but
increased land values in the safer parts of the city could give rise to
a
severe shift in the income demographic of New Orleans. Our plan for the
Lower
Ninth Ward, after extensive cleaning and materials reclamation
projects, is to
zone much of it for mixed-income housing developments, and reserve
other parts
for government-subsidized housing (see short term solutions, insurance
and
building codes). Most of this development will be focused on Lower
Ninth Ward
Neighborhood, taking advantage of the current abandoned state. While
the Lower
Ninth Ward will be the main focus of such development projects, similar
zoning
will be used as often as possible in other parts of the city to
counteract the
possible, unintentional result of forcing people out of New Orleans
entirely.
What Will Happen With These
Evacuated
Areas
In New Orleans East, Village de L’Est,
and
Venetian Isles,
eminent domain will force residents to move out as quickly as can be
achieved,
so the abandoned land will soon be available for other uses. Some
possible uses
for this land might include research areas, sites for alternate energy
sources,
a wildlife preserve, wetlands, and drainage systems. The land of Lakeview
and Gentilly could be used for similar purposes, however because this
land will
be evacuated more gradually, new projects will be based on the
particular size
and location of land that is evacuated.
Research areas could be used for a
variety
of projects,
including studying the process of returning filled, urbanized, and
contaminated
land back to natural wetlands. This project would be particularly
valuable to
these districts, plus any other areas of New Orleans that, over time, may be
forced to go through a
similar process. Sites for alternate energy sources might include, for
example,
area for wind turbines, which in general are not cost-effective because
of the
amount of land they required, but which could here prove very valuable
to the
rest of the city. A wildlife preserve already exists in Village de
L’Est – the
Bayou Savage, covering 20,000 acres – and could be expanded further.
Eventually, all of these areas are likely to be converted into wetlands
– in
other areas surrounding Lake Pontchartrain, particularly to the west,
this is
already the case, and almost all of the land New Orleans covers was once wetlands,
and the
wetlands that still surround the city serve the residents in many
valuable ways
(see wetlands background). At the very least, these areas can
accommodate a
more extensive water drainage system for the remaining parts of New Orleans.
This way,
the rest of the city will actually be safer than it was before, and as
a whole,
the areas still supporting residents will be much easier to protect,
and at a
much lower cost. Rather than trying to protect vast areas of land
which, if
current predictions are correct, will only get harder and harder to
protect as
time goes on, we will be providing much better protection to a smaller
city, and
these outer areas will serve a function in protecting this smaller city.
Plaquemines Parish
While our focus was on Orleans
parish, our plans for the river necessitate a brief discussion of plans
for
Plaquemines Parish. The Mississippi river currently runs through
Plaquemines
Parish, as it does through New
Orleans.
Our plan for the river, as detailed in the long term solutions/Mississippi
River
section is to allow it to spread out and distribute sediment south of a
designated point. South of this point, no residents will be allowed to
remain.
The designated point at which the river will begin to disperse is
Pointe a
la
Hache. Residents downriver of this point must be evacuated immediately.
In
addition, all residents who live outside the boundaries of Plaquemines
parish –
that is, the areas closer to the sea – must also evacuate immediately.
The
eminent domain plan being applied in New Orleans East, Village de L’Est
and
Venetian Isles will take effect here. The second designated point at
which the
river will start to spread out will be Wilkinson Canal.
Since this plan is supposed to gradually take effect over time,
residents
currently living between Wilkinson
Canal and
Pointe a la
Hache will be subject to the 50 year zoning plan described for Lakeview
and
Gentilly. According to the 2000 census, the total population of
Plaquemines
parish was 26,757 – smaller than many districts within New Orleans
Parish.
Therefore, the overall hardship caused will be minimal, especially
given how
important long-term solutions for the river are in order to sustain the
city.
