The following table shows the five most populated islands, which have been placed into Category I, on the basis of criteria listed above. Each island has then been examined more closely to get an estimate of how many people from each island will be evacuated to higher locations on their respective islands. For these islands, we recommend that people evacuate about 2 miles inward or at least 15 meters above sea level.

ⁱhttp://lumahai.soest.hawaii.edu/Enso/map/usapi/pohnpei.html
ⁱihttp://www.tageo.com/index-e-fm-cities-FM.htm
ⁱⁱⁱhttp://www.prel.org/
ⁱⁱⁱⁱhttp://islands.unep.ch/ILV.htm

Pohnpei (may also be referred to as Ponape)



Taken from:http://www.intangible.org/Features/micronesia/text/maps.html November 20, 2005
Basic Safety Evaluation
  Pohnpei Island was formed, similar to many other islands in the FSM, from a volcano. Therefore, its land is relatively high in elevation, with its highest altitude at 791 meters. There are large barrier reefs around the island and extensive mangrove forest development along the shoreline². Because of these characteristics, first of all, people are probably already located at high elevations where the tsunami will not reach, and second of all, there will be a lot of warning time because the barrier reefs and mangrove forest will act as buffers for the island, delaying the waves and dissipating some of the energy in the tsunami³.
Evacuee Estimate   The major cities on this island are Palikir, with a population of 10,100 ⁴ and Kolonia, with a population of 4,540. 5 Palikir is at an elevation of 682 feet and Kolonia is at an elevation of 9 feet⁶, so excluding the population of Palikir, we estimated that there were 25,000 people living in danger areas along the coast. We cannot assume that anyone else besides the population of Palikir lives far enough away from the coast because the only accurate data available for specific populations on Pohnpei is for large cities. Kolonia’s elevation proves that there is a significant number of people living on the coastline where a potential tsunami might wreak havoc. We are taking the maximum run-up of the tsunami to be about 15 meters, or around 45 feet, which will significantly impact most people living on the island. Therefore, the upper evacuation estimate for Pohnpei is 25,000 people.
Weno (also Moen)



Taken from:http://www.islands.com/truk/ November 20, 2005
Basic Safety Evaluation
  Weno, 18.8 square kilometers in area, has a maximum altitude of 370 meters. There are many mangrove forests along the coastline and extensive barrier reef systems, around both Weno and the state of Chuuk (see diagram).¹ The smaller islands present in the Chuuk island group will also act as buffers between the force of the tsunami and the main island. Again, because of these factors, we are likely to have at least an hour from the warning system.
Evacuee Estimate
  Weno is such a small island that it is difficult to find information for locations of population centers. Therefore, we decided to estimate that the entire population of Weno will need to be evacuated. This is probably not an unreasonable estimate because Weno’s population increased drastically after its airport was built, and the airport is located on a filled-in reef, which is probably not much higher than sea level. In that case, the number of people needing to be evacuated inland 2 miles is 23,400, the total population of the island.
Yap



Taken from: http://www.intangible.org/Features/micronesia/text/maps.html November 20, 2005

Basic Safety Evaluation
  Yap the island is actually nearly inseparable from the other islands Gagil Tamil, Map (also Maap), and Rumung, as apparent from the map. This evacuation estimate will cover all four islands, which will collectively be referred to as Yap. Yap has many barrier reefs surrounding the island but the island itself is located on the farthest edge of the FSM island group, so there are few small islands to buffer and dissipate the tsunami force. Yap is likely to be hit the hardest in the event of a tsunami. In fact, a 6.6 magnitude earthquake occurred near Ulithi, another island in the Yap island group, on January 16, 2005.⁷ Also, a 1999 earthquake near Taiwan of magnitude 7.6 generated tsunami warnings for Yap specifically, among other countries⁸. Therefore, not only the likelihood of a tsunami higher in Yap than any other state in the FSM, warning time may be low because of a lack of a smaller island buffer.
Evacuee Estimate
  The main city in Yap is Colonia (different from Kolonia in Pohnpei), which is a port city. While its average elevation is 56 feet⁹ and thus above the run-up estimate of 45 feet, most people are likely to live closer to the coast than the average elevation suggests. Also, large tsunamis do have run-ups greater than 45 feet, so Colonia is likely not safe from tsunami damage. Colonia is estimated to have a population of 4500¹⁰ so considering the overall population of 8037, we can consider the entire population of the island to be in danger of a tsunami and therefore the total population of 8037 must be evacuated at least 2 miles inland to reach a proper elevation and the safety zone of the island.
Kosrae



Taken from: http://www.intangible.org/Features/micronesia/text/maps.html November 20, 2005

Basic Safety Evaluation
  Kosrae, the island group, is unique among the four island groups of FSM in that it consists of one large island with no small islands at all. While it does have barrier reefs and mangrove forests, the lack of island buffers will probably cause Kosrae a great deal of harm during a tsunami. It is also the rightmost island of FSM, and a tsunami could gather a lot of speed crossing the ocean and then hit Kosrae with a lot of force.
Evacuee Estimate



Taken from:http://www.visit-fsm.org/kosrae/ November 20, 2005

  Apparent from the map above, the centers of population are close to the edge on an island that is 110 square kilometers. Lelu Village, which has an elevation very close to sea level¹¹, has an estimated population of 3100¹⁰, although this estimate is a little questionable because the village is located on a sub-island that isn’t very big. At any rate, out of the estimated population of 7833, most people are likely to live near the coast because of the location of the airport and the tourist center of Lelu Village. Therefore, we estimate the number of people needing to be evacuated at 7000. The reason why the estimate is less than the population of the island is because the island has a fairly large area, so some people must be living inland in a tsunami safety zone.
Tol



Taken from: http://www.visit-fsm.org/chuuk/img/chuuk_map.gif November 20, 2005

(The Illinois State Library claims to have a very detailed map of Tol, but this one shows the necessary information. For a more detailed map, see this link: http://www.reisenett.no/map_collection/australia/Truk_Tol_soil_1981.jpg )

Basic Safety Evaluation
  Because it is in the same island group Chuuk as Weno, the safety evaluation is pretty similar. There are excellent barrier reefs present all around Tol, and thick mangrove forest development1. We are likely to have a lot of warning time because in addition to the barrier reefs and mangrove forests, Tol is located in the center of FSM and so is surrounded by many island buffers within the FSM and by island groups nearby, like Papua New Guinea and the Northern Mariana Islands.
Evacuee Estimate
  Because the heights are very high towards the middle of the island and the lagoons are a source of tourist activity, many people probably live close to the coast of this small island, which is only 34 square kilometers in size1, less than 5 miles across. Basically everyone on this island would need to evacuate as far inland as possible -a total estimate of 6781 people.
  More specific safety sites for these five islands will be mapped out by local authorities who are familiar with the terrain and provided with data from risk assessment algorithms run by the United Nations. It is unrealistic to attempt to pinpoint exact locations of safety locations when the maps available do not provide an accurate sense of steepness of terrain, available clearings, and nearness to population density centers.

  The Category II islands have substantial populations of generally at least a thousand people (Fanapanges being the sole exception) and with elevations over 30 meters, giving people on the island locations to evacuate to. These islands were not included in the more specific analysis given to the five most populated islands because there is not much information about them available to us. These islands are listed below:


*All population data has been taken from the UN Earthwatch website (:http://islands.unep.ch/ILV.htm#1364), which contains population estimates from 1980. This is the most recent data available for these islands.

  The Category III islands do not have a high enough elevation that allows for evacuation sites on the island. These islands usually have a population of around 200-300 people, although a few larger and smaller populations are present on some of the islands. There are 31 of these islands (not listed), most of them in the Chuuk island group. There are a few evacuation plans that have been designed with these small populations in mind:

1. Island basement: This first plan was to build a large underground evacuation center out of concrete and other waterproof materials, large enough to house the entire population of the island. However, this is not very likely to succeed because the structure of a basement is not designed for such waterlogged soil that would be present on an island. Also, in terms of rescue, such a structure could be hazardous, i.e. likely to collapse on itself or difficult to open after a tsunami has changed the landscape. Also, if there is a single leak, this plan can become an automatic deathtrap. Providing oxygen for larger populations is also an issue.
2. Out to sea: This plan is to send the population out in their fishing vessels towards the direction of the tsunami. With adequate information, if this is achieved, the people will be in an area of the ocean where the tsunami’s change in amplitude is minimal and therefore unable to cause any damage. While their homes will still be destroyed, this is inevitable on an island that is likely to disappear after a tsunami anyway, and the population will be saved because they are far enough away from the island that the ocean bathymetry only allows for a small change in wave height due to the tsunami. This plan is probably the most realistic plan for small islands that are not close enough to larger islands to evacuate to in an emergency situation. The people are all likely to have enough fishing vessels since they live near the ocean, and with a proper warning provided through the tone-alert radios and a local authority to supervise the evacuation, this plan is probably the most feasible one.
3. Evacuation to larger islands: Some of these small islands are close enough to larger islands that they can be reached during an emergency situation, although this will depend on the time available between the warning and the tsunami. This should probably be estimated by the U.N. using the risk assessment algorithms. However, these small islands need enough time to evacuate off their island, land on the larger island and still reach the safety locations, which will be a long walk inland. Unless the small island is very close to a large island, plan 2 is probably still the best plan.

  Peru's current national tsunami evacuation plan can be found at this link.

Positive Aspects
  The positive aspects of the current plan include predetermined meeting places where extremely large groups can fit. For example, some of the Lima safe-havens include sports stadiums (Estadio Municipal) and universities (Universidad Nacional). This is a good use of resources considering the fact that these places are used to accommodating many people, though, granted, not for an extended period of time. Other safe locations include large public parks.

Problems

• The pedestrian evacuation routes in many cases overlap with the vehicular evacuation routes. This is a problem because panicked people will not act rationally, especially when in a group. The people may interfere with the flow of vehicular traffic. Scared motorists may, out of fear, do something drastic. In essence, putting people and cars on the same road just creates an additional risk that is potentially lethal.
• The plan also seems to completely neglect the fact that there may be disabled people or elderly people without access to cars, who could not walk such distances. There should be a special evacuation "bus" system for hospitals, nursing homes, and other locations with a high concentration of such people. In this way, each person can get to safety if they can get to one of those stops, walk, or drive.
• The plan also does not differentiate between high- and low-risk areas along the coast. After analysis of topography, elevation, and population maps, we have concluded that the high-risk areas include Lima, Callao, Trujillo, Chiclayo, and other areas of lower elevation as these locations are low or densely populated.
• The plan also is not helpful if people do not know the routes ahead of time. In the event of a tsunami, people need to know where they are supposed to go. For this reason, we propose a sign network consisting of permanent signs that direct people towards the predetermined locations. In this way, people would have a general idea of where they are supposed to go, and upon seeing the signs recall where they should go. It may seem a bit silly having their signs; however, in the event of such an event, there would be such hysteria that this precaution is warranted.

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