Professor John Marshall
PI at MIT
Dr. Maryam Al Shehhi
PI at MIT
This project aims to significantly accelerate and expand our ability to model the physical, biogeochemical and ecological conditions in the waters of the Arabian Gulf, enabling us to, for example, predict ocean currents around offshore drilling platforms, monitor the pathways of oil spills from tankers, discharges from desalination plants and the formation and evolution of harmful algal bloom (HAB) events, and provide information to help optimize the location of aquaculture farms.
The Arabian Gulf is a significant and unique supply of water to a large number of desalination plants surrounding the Gulf basin. Through fisheries and aquaculture it provides a precious source of food to local communities. It is also the main waterway via which oil is exported to the world. Each day more than 100 tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, carrying nearly one-fifth of the world's crude exports. These oil tankers result in occasional oil leaks and de-ballasting events. There has also been a significant increase in the number of desalination plants along the Gulf Coast, which now number more than 100. These plants result in large amounts of hot, salty effluent being discharged in to the Gulf which can significantly change the physical and biochemical properties of the waters. For example, over the last three decades, there has been an increase of HAB events in the region due to the biogeochemical interactions between effluent and ambient waters.
For all these reasons there is a need to build a physical-biogeochemical marine model calibrated for the Gulf which includes the influence of advective-diffusive-mixing processes driven by tides, winds, and internal density gradients. Such models could be used to predict, for example: the currents around offshore drilling sites, the trajectories and landing points of accidental marine pollution events (e.g. tracking the frequent oil spill and HAB events), nutrient cycles, contaminant dispersion, eutrophication, aquaculture-ecosystem interactions. Moreover, the models can be set up to operate in real time and forecasting schemes developed depending on the application.
To this end, an ocean model developed at MIT - the MITgcm - will be configured and its solution evaluated by comparison with in-situ observations of ocean currents and vertical profiles of water temperature and salinity. This will then be improved and adapted to yield a ‘tailored model’ designed to address the specific characteristics of, and applications to, the Gulf region. A biogeochemical model, also developed at MIT, will then be overlaid on the physical model to study the bio-chemical properties of the Gulf region. This ocean component will then be coupled to an existing regional atmospheric/chemical model which is already operational at the Masdar Institute.
The outcome of this project will certainly enhance the current marine monitoring system developed at the Masdar Institute which is based on combining hydro-dynamical modeling with multi-source satellite imagery. By improving the ocean model, a robust system will result that can be used by a wide range of end-users in the UAE and, in the future, extended to the GCC countries. This monitoring system can help local environmental organizations - such as the Ministry of Climate Change and Environment, the Environmental Agency of Abu Dhabi - in their monitoring and forecasting of water quality, alerting desalination plants of pollution incidents that can damage their systems, and making marine navigation aware of ocean currents, tides and the sea level.
